Mentioned in Video:
- ARK Invest Innovation ETF (#ARKK) – https://ark-funds.com/arkk
- ARK Invest Genomic Revolution ETF (#ARKG) – https://ark-funds.com/arkg
- ARK Invest Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (#ARKQ) – https://ark-funds.com/arkq
- ARK Invest Next Generation Internet ETF (#ARKW) – https://ark-funds.com/arkw
- ARK Invest Fintech Innovation ETF (#ARKF) – https://ark-funds.com/fintech-etf
- ARK Invest Space Exploration ETF (#ARKX) – https://ark-funds.com/arkx
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โ ๏ธ #CathieWood consolidates her actively managed funds at #ARKInvest by selling her “cash-like” positions to buy her highest conviction stocks (like #TSLA, TDOC, PATH, and #PLTR stock) at steep discounts. Other times, she sells Tesla stock, seemingly out of nowhere. What gives? This episode explains the connection and uses one sneaky indicator (based on a CNBC interview with Cathie Wood) to highlight what @ARK Invest thinks are some of the best stocks to buy now.
Video Transcript:
00:00
Earlier this year I made an episode about how Cathie Wood prepares for a crash. It was called
00:05
“Cathie Wood Prepares for a Crash” and in that episode, I talked about some of the investing
00:10
lessons I've learned since I started really looking at ARK Invest's daily trading data,
00:14
as well as how I use that data to build better investing habits for myself.
00:31
Oof. Also in that episode, I shared something I call the Cathie Indicator. Since then,
00:36
that indicator helped me decide to invest aggressively in the middle of May,
00:41
after ARK Invest's funds dropped by double digits in a matter of days.
00:46
Doing that made me pretty happy when ARK Invest's funds rebounded by double digits
00:50
in just a few weeks after that. Well, guess what — this Cathie Indicator just flipped again.
00:55
So, I put the word URGENT in the title because I really do feel that this information
00:59
is time-sensitive. In this episode, I'll go over exactly what this indicator is, what's going on
01:05
in ARK Invest's funds that caused me to make this episode right now, and how you can track
01:09
this indicator for yourself, if you're interested in doing so. Let me set the stage with this quick
01:14
clip of Cathie Wood on CNBC's half time report earlier this year, where she talks about what
01:20
she does with the holdings inside ARK Invest's funds during a market crash or a deep correction.
02:33
Okay, so let me unpack that clip. Cathie Wood uses big, stable companies as cash-like
02:39
positions because she can't hold a lot of actual cash in ARK Invest's funds. Most of her funds have
02:45
much less than 1% cash at any given time. Cathie Wood will sell out of these cash-like companies,
02:51
even at a loss, when she feels that her highest conviction stocks are trading at a steep discount,
02:56
like during a market correction or a crash. In that clip, she was talking about big biotech
03:01
companies, but each ARK Invest fund has these cash-like positions in them. For example,
03:06
Cathie Wood held $75 million dollars of Apple inside ARKF, ARK Invest's Fintech Innovation Fund,
03:13
until the start of May. By May 18th, Cathie Wood had dropped Apple completely.
03:18
Why this sudden drop? Well, if we go look at the price action for some of ARK Invest's
03:22
biggest positions around the middle of May, guess what we find! Everything from Tesla and Teladoc,
03:27
to Palantir and UiPath, was trading at a steep discount. In fact, if we zoom out and look at
03:33
all of ARK Invest's funds around that time frame, we can see that pretty much everything Cathie Wood
03:38
invests in was way down in price. And, as you can see, things didn't stay down for very long,
03:44
hence the urgency. Now let's talk about the Cathie Indicator during that same time frame.
03:49
All the Cathie Indicator measures is the number of stocks inside each ARK Invest fund
03:54
over time. In that clip, Cathie Wood said that ARKK had as little as 33 stocks in it during the
04:00
lows in March of 2020. For comparison, in the beginning of May of this year, ARKK had almost
04:06
60 stocks in it. Then, in the middle of May, when everything started to crash, Cathie Wood did
04:11
exactly what she said in that clip — she sold her cash-like positions to buy up her highest
04:16
conviction holdings at bargain prices, which shows up on this Cathie Indicator plot as sharp
04:21
declines in the number of holdings in each fund. If you go look at my videos from back in June,
04:27
which is when the stock prices started moving back up and the Cathie Indicator leveled off, I spent
04:32
all of my time talking about the patterns I was seeing in ARK Invest's trading data as well as
04:37
putting out deep dives on many of the stocks I saw Cathie Wood was buying up, like Teladoc, UiPath,
04:43
Palantir, and Draftkings. Many of those stocks are still among ARK Invest's biggest positions today,
04:49
so I put a playlist of those deep dives together for you. If you're interested in that, I'll leave
04:54
a link to it in the top right-hand corner of your screen right now and in the description
04:57
below as well. And, if you look at what the Cathie Indicator is doing now, you can see that all six
05:03
of ARK Invest's funds have been concentrating down again since the start of this month.
05:07
So, if I look at what Cathie Wood has been buying in each fund over this same time frame, I can be
05:12
confident that I'm looking at ARK Invest's most recent highest conviction plays, since those
05:17
are the stocks she's spending her cash-like positions on right now. Pretty cool, right?
05:23
So, here's ARK Invest's most recent trading data. Each row in these tables is one stock,
05:28
the rows are ordered by the size of ARK Invest's position in that stock, and they're colored by
05:32
the change that position since the start of the month compared to how their overall assets
05:37
under management have changed. Since their AUM is down 5% since the start of September,
05:42
positions that shrank by more than 5% are in red and positions that shrank
05:47
by less or ended up growing are in green. We're looking for the darkest green grows.
05:53
Also, note that this first column shows the percent change in shares Cathie Wood is holding,
05:57
while the third column shows the change in price, since both influence the total position size.
06:03
Right now we're looking at data for all of the funds combined,
06:06
but I'll also quickly go fund by fund. So, as ARK Invest's funds are concentrating down, Cathie Wood
06:12
is buying a lot of Invitae, ticker symbol N V T A, even though its price isn't really falling.
06:18
Invitae is a genetic diagnostics company that offers gene panels and single-gene testing for a
06:23
broad range of clinical areas including hereditary cancer, cardiology, neurology, pediatric genetics,
06:30
metabolic disorders, and so on, so it's pretty core to ARKG, ARK Invest's genomics revolution
06:36
fund. Also, UiPath, ticker symbol P A T H, fell in price by about 15% since the start of the month
06:43
and Cathie Wood has bought about 15% more shares accordingly, so even though her billion dollar
06:48
position in it is almost unchanged, she's holding a lot more PATH stock. UiPath is a robotic process
06:55
automation company focused on discovering and automating repetitive business processes in a
07:01
wide variety of industries. It's one of only two companies to be in all six of ARK Invest's funds,
07:07
the other being Palantir, ticker symbol P L T R. Also, you may have noticed that Cathie
07:12
Wood reduced her Tesla shares by close to 10%. [make the home alone face/home alone clip].
07:18
Fun fact, every YouTuber making that face on their Thumbnails is also making that exact
07:22
sound as well. Cathie Wood sold roughly 10% percent of her position in Telsa because one
07:27
of the rules she follows is not having any one stock be over 10% percent of any fund by weight.
07:33
Tesla is still the number one position in ARKK, ARKW, and ARKQ and it's currently still over 10%
07:39
percent of each of those funds, so this is a non-issue, even though it looks like a big
07:44
sale. There, saved you some clicks. The only other stock I'll call out before moving on to
07:47
the individual funds is Pagerduty, ticker symbol P D. PagerDuty is a software as a service platform
08:14
that uses machine learning and automation to send and manage alerts and notifications for customer
08:19
service applications. They're actually built on top of Twilio, another of Cathie Wood's biggest
08:24
holdings. ARK Invest's position in Pagerduty increased by over 13% as the stock dipped in
08:30
the beginning of the month, and now the stock is up about 4%, making Pagerduty ARK Invest's
08:35
30th biggest position overall, out of about 160. See? I knew pagers would never go out of style.
08:42
Since your time is valuable, let me sort the rest of these tables by the biggest change in share
08:46
count instead of the actual position size, since that shows us which stocks Cathie Wood is actually
08:51
buying into. Here it is for all of their funds combined. I already covered UiPath, Pagerduty,
08:54
and Invitae and you'll notice that the rest of these are much smaller and much lower-ranked,
08:59
so fair warning that their position sizes within each fund can change fairly quickly. Cathie Wood
09:05
increased her combined share count by more than 20% in the following companies since the start of
09:10
the month: Pfizer, ticker symbol P F E, Discovery, ticker symbol D S Y, Workday, W D A Y, Markforged,
09:19
M K F G, and Komatsu, ticker symbol K M T U Y. Here's the table one more time without
09:25
highlights for those of you taking screenshots. I see you out there. Let's move on to each fund,
09:30
starting with ARKK. The biggest changes in share count were in Signify Health, ticker symbol S G F
09:36
Y, UiPath, P A T H, Pagerduty, P D, and Invitae, ticker symbol N V T A. That matches up with what
09:45
I just showed you in ARK Invest's combined funds because ARKK is actually over $21 billion dollars
09:50
in assets under management, making it bigger than all of Cathie Wood's other funds combined. Let's
09:56
move on to ARKG, ARK Invest's fund themed around the genomic revolution. The biggest increases in
10:02
share count were in Pfizer, ticker symbol P F E, 1 Life Healthcare, O N E M, UiPath Again,
10:09
and Invitae Again. This second row is actually cash, and you can see its rank in ARKG is 53, so
10:15
it's actually one of the very smallest positions in the fund, even after this 40% increase. Next
10:21
up, ARKW, ARK Invest's next-generation internet fund. Cathie Wood has been investing aggressively
10:27
in internet-based companies all year, so I'm not surprised to see way more dark green rows
10:32
in ARKW than in ARKG. Lots of stocks increasing by double-digits here: Robinhood, ticker symbol
10:38
H O O D, Roku R O K U, Genius Sports, G E N I, Pagerduty Again, PD, Khosla Ventures, K V S B,
10:47
which is the SPAC bringing Nextdoor public. Nextdoor is a social network focused on local
10:52
communities to help people who are physically close to each other connect online. Then, below
10:59
that, we have UiPath again, Zoom Video, ticker symbol Z M, and Splunk, ticker symbol S P L K.
11:08
ARKF, ARKQ, and ARKX are all much smaller than the three big funds I just covered,
11:13
so the combined ARK ranks of some these holdings are going to be much smaller than in the last
11:18
three funds. Still, they're worth covering if you're looking for cool stocks in the Fintech,
11:23
Automation, or Aerospace areas, respectively. This is ARKF. ARKF's cash position is up almost
11:29
5X from 2 weeks ago as Cathie Wood continues to consolidate the fund and so far, she's been
11:35
spending that money on Discovery, D S Y, Workday, W D A Y, Farfetch, F T C H, and Etsy, E T S Y.
11:44
She is also buying the dip on Stoneco, ticker symbol S T N E. I'm excited to see where some
11:49
of this 18 million dollar cash pile in ARKF ends up. Next, we have ARKQ and we can see a similar
11:56
trend. The cash pile almost doubled over the last 2 weeks and so far it's been spent on Komatsu,
12:02
K M T U Y, Markforged, M K F G, Proto Labs, P R L B, Jaws Spitfire, S P F R, which is the SPAC
12:11
bringing Velo3D public. Velo3D is a pretty cool, vertically integrated metal 3D printing company
12:17
that prints parts for space rockets, jet engines and fuel delivery systems.
12:22
Deere, ticker symbol D E, and Blade Air Mobility, ticker symbol B L D E, also saw double-digit share
12:28
count increases since the start of the month. Last and, uh, actually least, we have ARKX,
12:34
ARK Invest's newest and smallest actively managed fund focused on Space-based technologies
12:40
and their beneficiaries. Markforged, Deere, Blade Air Mobility, Jaws Spitfire, and Komatsu, and
12:46
UiPath all show up here again, as well as Heico, ticker symbol H E I, and Aerovironment, ticker
12:52
symbol A V A V. Just to be cheeky, let me point out that even after these double-digit increases,
12:58
almost all of the positions I just mentioned are STILL smaller than Netflix's position in this
13:03
Space Exploration fund. Womp womp. Kidding aside, ARKX is a tiny fund compared to ARK Invest's other
13:09
5. It has just $600 million dollars in assets under management, which is less than 1 and a
13:16
half percent of the almost $42 billion dollars in combined assets under management I just covered.
13:24
That was a pretty fast play-by-play, but now you have the full context for the biggest increases
13:28
in ARK Invest's holdings by share count, when you combine these funds together. Here's that table
13:34
one more time. If you're looking for interesting genomics and healthcare plays, it's Pfizer,
13:39
One Life Healthcare and Invitae. If you're looking for cool 3D printing companies,
13:44
check out Markforged or Jaws Spitfire, which is Velo3D. Some interesting Fintech plays
13:49
could be Discovery, Workday, or Stoneco. If you're looking for cool stocks in the areas of aerospace,
13:55
automation, and autonomous mobility, check out Heico, Deere, Blade Air Mobility, Komatsu or
14:02
Aerovironment. If you want to know the highest conviction names that Cathie Wood keeps buying,
14:06
it's going to be the positions with the highest combined rank:
14:09
UiPath, Invitae, and Pagerduty are much higher ranking than the rest.
14:14
Comment below or tweet me at ticker symbol you if any of the companies I just mentioned
14:18
were already on your radar and which ones interest you the most. I read all your comments and tweets
14:23
and usually will do a deep dive on a company if enough people request it. I love this stuff.
14:29
And of course, if you find this kind of information useful, there are a few ways
14:32
to track this for yourself. The easiest is to like this video and subscribe to the channel
14:37
with all notifications turned on. I'm not trying to squeeze you here; I spend all my time building
14:43
these dashboards and looking at this stuff already and if you do those things, you'll be
14:47
the first to know when I see these time-sensitive trends and patterns emerge in the data and make a
14:51
video about it. That's the point, right? If you want to track things for yourself
14:56
without a YouTuber involved, no problem, you can go to www.ark-funds.com, download
15:03
the holdings spreadsheets for each fund every day, count the number of holdings in each fund,
15:07
and track the changes. ARK Invest makes their data completely free and publicly available and I'll
15:13
always support investors who want to go straight to the source. I really respect that. If you want
15:18
this information daily but don't want to do the downloading, counting, and tracking yourself, my
15:23
Patrons on Patreon and Channel Members right here on YouTube have 24/7 access to these dashboards
15:29
and they get updated before every market open, by me, by hand. I do that because I really believe
15:35
I'm adding value and that using data to guide my research and investments instead of my gut
15:40
leads to better habits and better results. After all, better information today means better
15:45
investments tomorrow and this is the best way I know how to get that information directly to you.
15:51
Until next time, this is ticker symbol you. My name is Alex,
15:55
reminding you, that the best investment you can make… is in you.
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