Mentioned in Video:
🚀 #CathieWood made massive trades in all #ARKInvest funds over the last quarter. This episode reviews the #GrowthStocks inside @ARK Invest‘s 6 actively managed funds, combined. Cathie Wood has been loading up on stocks like Draftkings (DKNG stock), Palantir (PLTR stock), UiPath (PATH stock), and ROKU stock, even at the cost of Tesla Stock (TSLA). Let's see if we can use my new dashboards to figure out which are the best stocks to buy now!
You may not know this about me, but I spend a lot of time looking at ARK Invest’s trading data.
What’s that? You… knew that about me? Well, what you may not know is I’ve spent the last 5 months
working with a Tableau Master to unlock all the juicy secrets of ARK Invest’s trading data.
Seriously, this dude wrote a literal book on Tableau and he just helped this channel level-up
big time. More on that in a bit. In this episode, I’m going to show you what we’ve
been working on and some of the things we’re finding in the data so far. Stick
around till the end of the episode and I’ll tell you how you can use these dashboards for yourself,
as well as how I’m using it to guide my research and this channel going forward.
Your time is valuable, so let’s get right into it, starting with something familiar.
Here’s the new version of the table I’ve been using to track the changes in ARK
Invest’s holdings. My Patrons on Patreon and channel members right here on Youtube
have access to the old version of this today. This new dashboard actually lets the user
compare ARK Invest’s data for the last 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, or 60 trading days, but I have a special
version that lets me put in custom dates so I can take my time when I’m making content.
Right now we’re looking from the start of Quarter 4 2021 through yesterday,
just keep things relevant. ARK Invest’s funds are all conviction weighted and managed by Cathie Wood
and the investing question I’ve been answering with this table is simple. Which stocks did
she buy the most or sell out of the least as her funds continued to drop between these two dates?
Each row is one company, the rows are ordered by the size of Cathie Wood’s position in that
company, and each position is colored by its change in size, relative to the change ARK
Invest’s assets under management. We care about the changes in total dollars held. From October
1st to yesterday, ARK Invest’s total assets under management shrank by over 10 billion dollars,
or about 28%. ARKK shrank by 23%, ARKW shrank by 34%, and so on. These numbers change day by day,
but they tell me how I should color each table to find the most outsized buys and sells depending on
the fund, so this new version calculates it all for me in one place. Since we’re looking at her
combined funds and they shrank by 28%, the table is colored so positions that shrank by more than
that are in blue, and positions that shrank by less than that or even grew are in green.
So, let’s start answering some questions we might have about ARK Invest’s data. Cathie Wood sold
55% of her Tesla shares over the last 15 weeks or so as its price went up about 37%. She now
holds about 1.7 billion dollars of Tesla stock, which is almost 40% less dollars than she held
at the start of Quarter 4. This DOESN’T MEAN that Tesla is now a cash-like position to ARK Invest.
Even with that massive drop, Tesla is ARK Invest’s number one position over all,
and that hasn’t changed at all. It’s STILL their highest-conviction holding, since these funds
are all conviction weighted. It’s no secret that growth stocks have been absolutely decimated over
the last quarter. What this means is that other growth stocks moved UP in conviction
relative to Tesla as their prices got crushed and their fundamentals stayed the same. This second
column tracks percent changes in share price and many of ARK Invest’s stocks have fallen by 20,
30, even 40% or more over the last quarter. That simply didn’t happen to Tesla stock.
So, my honest guess is that ARK Invest used stocks like Tesla, Coinbase, Unity,
and Spotify as cash to counteract the big drops in price of her highest conviction positions. Here’s
the first big challenge with this table. Notice how different the colors of these four rows are,
even though Cathie Wood sold shares of all 4 of these stocks as they all went up in price.
That trading behavior of selling a stock when it rallies is hard to spot this way. Keep Tesla,
Coinbase, Unity, and Spotify in mind for a minute. I’ll show you how we solved this problem.
The green rows with positive changes in share count and negative changes in price
are the ones she bought the dip on. Teladoc, Zoom, Roku, UiPath, Exact Sciences. Square recently
changed their name to Block, which really adds a whole new dimension to the company if you ask me…
that’s it. That’s my one Square joke. Anyway, that name change is what’s messing with the data
and I’m still figuring out how I want to handle data where a company changes names
in the middle of the set. Twilio, Intellia Therapeutics, and Beam Therapeutics round out
the list of top positions that got added to on the dip. Here’s the second challenge with the table.
If we scroll a little bit down the list, we can see massive triple-digit increases in shares
held of Robinhood, Ginkgo Bioworks, and Roblox as well. All 3 of these rows are very green but what
we actually want to know is which ones are green because Cathie Wood bought a lot of shares AND the
price of the stock is way down. Those are the ones where she’s buying the dip. Robinhood and Ginkgo
Bioworks are dark green because Cathie Wood bought the dip but Roblox is dark green partly because
its share price went up. The number one question I get asked in the comments, on Discord, on Twitter,
and on every other platform is what Cathie Wood is buying and selling and why, so part of my job was
to go through the data by hand and find the dips and the cash-like positions. The big challenge
is presenting the actual data in a way that tells the right story. Here’s how we solved it.
This is the new State of the ARK dashboard. There are a LOT of investing insights here
so let me walk you through them. Just like before, I can pick a standard time interval like 1
trading day, 1 week, 1 month, and so on. I’m looking at ARK’s trading data from the start
of Quarter 4 through today, just like with the tables. Here’s how their assets under
management have changed in total and fund by fund. Here’s the Cathie Indicator, both in total
and fund by fund. The lower the number of stocks in a fund, the more concentrated into
the highest-conviction positions that fund must be as they sell lower conviction ones for cash.
These four white boxes show highlights from across the entire data set – the 5 biggest buys, sells,
new positions, and completely sold out positions without me having to hunt for them at all.
Since this is a data-driven research-focused channel, the positions listed in those boxes
should make for useful investing content. Remember Robinhood, Ginkgo Bioworks and Roblox? Well, those
last 2 were actually the biggest 2 increases since the start of Q4 but Robinhood’s actual position
size only increased by 2 percent, so it doesn’t show up as a Top Increase. Over the same time
period, ARK Invest decreased their Tesla position by over a billion dollars. It’s still rank 1.
Next is Zillow, with over 800 million dollars in decreases. It’s now ranked 71. That’s way
more interesting, even though it’s technically a smaller sale. There’s definitely a video about how
Zillow entered, messed up, and catastrophically exited the online home buying market
and how Cathie Wood sold Zillow stock as a result. What about their biggest NEW positions? ARK Invest
has 34 million dollars of Nu Bank now, which is a stock they weren't invested in a quarter ago.
Same with KIND stock, which is Nextdoor, and X P E V, which is Xpeng Motors, a Chinese electric
vehicle company. Those are all interesting video ideas. ARK Invest’s largest total sales
include Pinterest and Facebook. I’ve already made videos covering both, or else those would be 2
more. But maybe there’s a video about ARK Invest’s stance on social media in there. At least now I
know to look. When I say this is a data-driven investing channel, I’m not just throwing around
some buzz-words. Here’s the data literally driving the channel. So, let’s talk about ARK Invest’s
trading data over the last quarter of 2021 and the first couple weeks of this year as I orient you to
the rest of the State of the ARK. If something interests you, I encourage you to comment below
or tweet me at Ticker Symbol YOU with what you’d like me to cover more in future episodes.
The main idea of this new dashboard is to see all of ARK Invest’s funds side-by-side,
as well as their combined holdings, without having to switch between views. So,
what stocks is Cathie Wood actually buying the dip on and what stocks is she selling to get the cash?
From the previous table, we know that she sold Tesla, Coinbase,
Unity, and Spotify. Remember how different their row colors were in that table, even though they
all went up in share price and Cathie Wood sold some shares? There’s now an indicator next to
each stock. If the indicator is blue, Cathie Wood is selling as the stock price increases.
Tesla stock increased by 37%, so Cathie Wood sold 55% of her shares, just like we saw earlier. But
now this blue indicator at the start of the row lets us know when both of those things are true.
Even though these 4 stocks had very different row colors on the previous table and in this one,
they all show this blue indicator because Cathie Wood sold some shares to buy other stocks. The
rows with this blue indicator, combined with the top decreases and largest sold positions
are where her cash came from. If there’s a green indicator to the left of the stock,
Cathie Wood bought the dip over that time frame. Teladoc’s price is down 32% and ARK’s share count
is up 17%. Zoom’s stock is down 33% so Cathie Wood bought 56% more shares over the time frame. So,
based on ARK Invest’s research and trading data, we can now quickly tell which stocks
COULD be decent buy-the-dip opportunities right now. That doesn’t mean go out and
buy any stock with a green square next to it, it just means we can narrow down our search.
Let’s talk about that search. If I click on a stock, the whole dashboard becomes
focused on that stock. I have absolutely every piece of information on Tesla inside these
funds. If I mouse over anything, the dashboard tells me the specifics like the current value
of the position, the new value, the percent change, and so on. I ALSO get a plot of the
daily closing price and the total number of shares Cathie Wood held on every market day, which lets
me calculate her average buy price over this time period, assuming she bought right at market close.
It’s not perfect, but it’s the best we got. Want to know Cathie Wood’s average buy price
for Tesla over the last 2 weeks? Just click 2 weeks, then click Tesla. It’s $1104.89. Want to
see exactly how many shares she held each trading day? That’s the blue line. We can check the rank,
holding size, share price, share count, and weight for that stock across every trading day in the
time range. Want to know Cathie Wood’s average buy price for Teladoc just in ARKK over the last
quarter? Just hit 1 quarter, then Teladoc’s cell in the ARKK column and voila. A little under $110
per share is what she paid for it. It’s $86.32 as of yesterday’s close, so you can buy Teladoc stock
today for much cheaper than Cathie Wood did. I’m not saying you should go and do that, I’m simply
showing you that opportunity currently exists in the stock market and here it is in the data.
So, here are all of the top stocks that Cathie Wood bought the dip on since October 1st:
We already covered Teladoc, which dipped about 32% and she bought 17% more shares for an average of
$114 per share. It’s currently $86. Zoom is down 33% so Cathie Wood picked up 56% more shares at an
average of $227 per share. It moved from Rank 9 to Rank 4 as a result. It’s currently $176 per share.
UiPath is one of just two stocks that sits inside all 6 ARK Invest funds – the other
being Palantir. UiPath is down 21% and Cathie Wood picked up 16% more shares of UiPath as it
dropped over 20% in price. Her average price since October 1st is $49 per share. It’s currently under
42. Roku is currently down over 40% and Cathie Wood picked up 36% more shares as a result,
for an average price of $262 per share. It’s currently $186 per share. We can see similar
behavior in genomics stocks: she bought the dip in Exact Sciences, Intellia Therapeutics,
Beam Therapeutics, Crispr Therapeutics, Pacific Biosciences, and Ginkgo Bioworks, which moved up
15 ranks after she more than doubled her share count in it during the recent dip. Her average
buy price for Ginkgo Bioworks is almost $12 per share and it’s under $7 per share now.
One extra stock I want to cover here is Palantir,
since there’s been a lot of chatter about it after a certain interview and with Cathie Wood selling
shares. Palantir is currently ARK Invest’s 16th biggest position overall, down only 2 ranks since
the start of October. They’ve sold 30% of their Palantir position, which is right in line with
the 30% drop in ARK Invest’s total assets under management. The interesting thing that wasn’t
easy to pull out of the data before but is very easy now, is that ARK Invest isn’t really JUST
selling Palantir, they’re selling it in ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF while adding it to ARKG, ARKQ,
and ARKX. What this means to me is that Cathie Wood thinks there are better deals in the advanced
internet technology space but that Palantir’s ability to gain market share in genomics,
autonomy, and space-based applications are being undervalued. This totally makes sense if you think
about which stocks are getting crushed the hardest – it's the stay at home stocks that Palantir
competes with exactly in ARKK and ARKW and ARKF. If I switch to the 1 week view for Palantir,
guess what? Cathie Wood is actually starting to buy the dip in it again at an average price
of $16.60 per share. So maybe don’t click on all those clickbait videos about the end of Palantir
or how it's the worst stock ever. That’s all noise and I’m showing you the data to back that up.
If you’re interested in learning more about Palantir, Ginkgo Bioworks, Teladoc, UiPath,
Roku, and many of the other stocks on this list while they’re at much lower prices than Cathie
Wood has been buying them, I’ve made deep dive videos on a lot of them and I’ll work
on covering the rest. I’ll leave my playlist of deep dive videos in the top right-hand corner of
your screen right now and in the description below as well. Data-driven investing, right?
As far as I know, this is the most powerful,
most complete, and most organized way to look at a family of funds on the internet today. When other
investment firms decide to publish daily trading data and tons of research like ARK Invest does,
all I have to do is plug them into a copy of this dashboard and the channel expands its market
coverage. Data drives the channel and no one provides better, faster, or more research-backed
data than ARK Invest. Period. A big thank you to ARK Invest for doing that because without them,
this kind of finance channel and all these data projects simply couldn’t exist. That
kind of transparency and consistency is changing the finance world. Big time.
I’m the product manager and designer of this suite of dashboards. Before I became a full-time
investor and YouTuber, I was the head of strategy and data analytics at a business-to-business web
technology firm. My job there was to help clients make decisions based on a lot of different kinds
of business data from a lot of sources. Before that, I was a rocket scientist at MIT. My job
there was to help computers make decisions based on a lot of different kinds of sensor data
from a lot of sources, mostly cameras and telescopes and radars. In my expert opinion,
this dashboard is the best way to shorten the time between getting the data and finding an insight.
The Tableau expert I’m working with is Patrick Sarsfield. Hi Pat! It turns out he’s a fan of
the channel and was up to the challenge. He works as a Senior Data Visualization
Consultant at Lovelytics. He literally wrote the book on sharing content through Tableau.
Here’s the book. It’s called Maximizing Tableau Server: A beginners guide to accessing, sharing,
and managing content on Tableau Server. If you’re interested in checking out his work,
you can find him on Twitter at PaddyScarsfield and if you’re interested in checking out his book,
you can find a discount code in the description below. I don’t make any money in any way for
you using the code or buying the book – I just think it’s awesome that he wrote one.
If you want access to these dashboards for yourself, consider supporting the channel as
a Patron on Patreon or Channel Member right here on YouTube. I’m going through the last
rounds of verification and bug fixing now, so I’ll be rolling out these new dashboards to
my supporters in the next week or two. I update all of these dashboards myself every market day,
by hand. If you’re already a supporter of the channel, thank you. Your support means
a lot to me and in return, you’re about to get a LOT more bang for your buck.
Donors will get the new bar chart, where you can filter all of ARK Invest’s holdings
by fund and by date, as well as mouse over any position for lots more info. I use this
as a quick way to see how big ARK Invest’s biggest positions are at any given moment.
If you sign up as an Investor, you get that bar chart and the upgraded tables.
The tables let you search through the changes in any of ARK Invest’s funds
or all of them combined. For each fund, you can go back 1 or 2 days, 1 or 2 weeks, a month, or
a quarter to see how ARK Invest’s positions have changed. I use this when I’m just quickly trying
to look for the biggest changes inside each fund over time to ask high level questions and build
watch lists. I think most people would be fine at this level, checking the dashboard every couple
days or even weeks for huge changes. Then, you can hit the 1 month or quarter button whenever you see
a big dip in a stock to see how heavy ARK Invest has been buying it across their combined funds.
And of course, if you’re interested in seeing every single detail about ARK Invest’s positions
across every fund, with all the crazy automations and tooltips and insights I just showed you,
the Disruptor tier supporters get this full State of the ARK dashboard, plus the other two.
And if you’re an Insider-tier supporter, you’ll obviously get everything as well, in addition
to my buy and sell alerts, which should resume shortly now that this project is all wrapped up.
There is never any pressure to support the channel or help fund these crazy
investing projects. I’ll be regularly featuring all of these dashboards in future episodes,
especially with ARK Invest’s 2022 Big Ideas report coming out soon. If I find something
worth sharing, I’ll share it with you right here on the channel, as always. After all,
this is the channel that invests in you and it’s good to be back.
So, stay strong, stay long and thanks for watching. Until next time, this is Ticker
Symbol YOU. My name is Alex, reminding you that the best investment you can make… is in you.
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