I’m Buying Every Share I Can.

Table of Contents

1. Market Shock
2. Stock Market
3. Investment Strategy
4. Key Takeaways

A major market shock is coming, and Wall Street isn't ready for it. The media doesn't see it, and it's much bigger than most investors realize because it's going to hit the market from two directions at once. The cracks are already starting to show, but almost no one is paying attention. My name is Alex, and I spent eight years as an electrical engineer and AI researcher at MIT, which helped me find stocks like NVIDIA, TSMC and Micron years before the rest of the market. This is exactly the kind of setup that can make investors rich, as long as they know what stocks to watch and how to be greedy when others are fearful. That's exactly what I'll show you in this video, because that's the best way to get rich without getting lucky. Your time is valuable, so let's get right into it.

The Market Shock

The market is currently fighting a war on two fronts. The first front is obvious. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 60 days. And oil prices are up over 50% in the last two months, which raises costs and lowers margins for every company we invest in. Just yesterday, Iran offered up a deal to end the conflict. But the U.S. rejected it. And the next 11 days are critical. The president can deploy U.S. forces without congressional approval for up to 60 days.

So, President Trump's 60-day window expires on May 11th, which means one of three big things are about to hit the market. President Trump either uses the time he has left to escalate the conflict, he withdraws the U.S. naval blockade, or he gets Congress to extend his authorization.

Every option has huge consequences on oil prices and global supply chains, none of them are being priced in, and make no mistake, just kicking the can down the road is not a real option. Like I said, the cracks are already starting to show. Taiwan imports 97% of its energy and gets almost 40% of its grid power from natural gas sourced in the Middle East.

TSMC has about 11 days worth of liquefied natural gas on site. 30% of the world's helium supply comes from Qatar. Helium is what cools the magnets in the machines that make every advanced chip on earth. When the helium supply stops, so does chip production. And right now, chip fabs are still running because they plan for short disruptions, but it takes companies months to rebuild their stockpiles and just days to blow through them.

If the Strait stays closed, supply chains face even more delays, insurance and oil prices climb even higher, and margins keep compressing. The second market shock is totally different and much less obvious, which is why the media hasn't connected the dots yet. OpenAI is valued at close to a trillion dollars today, and their AI models are a huge part of the demand pushing prices for AI stocks higher and higher.

The Stock Market

But news just broke that OpenAI has been missing their own revenue and user targets for months, and now they're in a court battle with Elon Musk, a trial that could literally rewrite the future of the entire AI industry. Let me remind you of a few insane details to show you just how shaky their situation is. Last year, Sam Altman signed deals committing OpenAI to roughly 1.4 trillion dollars in future AI infrastructure spending deals that skyrocketed the stocks.

On the other side, I've covered most of these deals in previous videos, but I put together this summary table so you can see the big picture. Some of these deals are even crazier than they first look. The AMD one gives OpenAI the option to buy up to 10% of AMD's entire company at one cent per share if OpenAI can hit certain deployment milestones. As AMD's stock price rises, this deal quietly becomes worth far more than what it looks like on paper.

1.4 trillion dollars in commitments, OpenAI's current revenue run rate is 25 billion dollars per year, and that's before accounting for their costs. You know, how can the company with 13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion of spend commitments? You know, and you've heard the criticism.

We're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. Just enough. The Elon Musk trial just pours salt on this wound. He wants the court to force OpenAI back to nonprofit status. He wants a full change in leadership and he wants $134 billion in damages returned to OpenAI's non-profit arm. The for-profit side is the one with $1.4 trillion on the hook. Non-profits cannot IPO. Microsoft billion stake in the company gets vaporized if Elon wins this trial Realistically I don see that happening but the middle ground might still do enough damage to OpenAI The court could probably allow them to stay a for-profit company, but will make them write a check for around $65 billion or more to the non-profit arm.

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Alright, let's talk about protecting our portfolios next. That doesn't mean panic sell your stocks today and try to buy the dip tomorrow. It means making smart decisions for yourself based on data and facts instead of gut feelings. So let's look at some market data next.

Starting with how big crashes can actually get and how long they could last, this is a chart from first trust in bloomberg showing the s p 500's performance through every bull and bear market going back to world war ii. The x-axis is time and the y-axis is total returns.

It turns out that bull markets last an average of 4.4 years, while bear markets last 11 months. The average return during a bull market is 151 percent, while bear markets lose roughly 32 on average. So said another way, bull markets last over four times longer than bear markets and they return almost five times more than bear markets drop.

The Investment Strategy

This is why millionaires get made during stock market crashes, they're really opportunities to buy the best stocks at the biggest discounts. This is also why I focus on long-term investing, it takes years for markets to hit the top and to recover from the bottom. I want to arm you with as much data as I can, so here's another way to look at it.

Here's a study that splits bear markets into two parts, their declines and their recoveries. In 1956, the s p 500 went down 21 over 15 months and then took another 11 months to recover from the bottom and make a new high. Compare that to the start of the pandemic, where the market dropped 34 in a single month and only took five months to recover.

The average bear market takes around 13 months to bottom and another 24 months to fully recover. So, no matter which way you slice this data, the buying opportunity lasts for months, not minutes. That gives smart investors plenty of time to plan their moves, build their cash position, and prepare to be greedy when others are being fearful.

That's how real money gets made, this is also why you never panic sell, you actually want to be buying when there's blood in the streets, even if some of that blood is your own. But how do you actually know when to be fearful and when to be greedy, the answer is even more data.

This is cnn's fear and greed index, and I'll leave a link to it below, so that you can bookmark it for yourself. It's a single number from zero to 100, when this index is low, investors are panicking, and when it's high, investors are getting greedy and they're overpaying for stocks.

When you zoom out to a one-year timeline, things get even more interesting, investors are currently near the one-year record level of greed, but that greed is starting to reverse, the cracks are starting to show, but the shocks aren't priced in yet. That's exactly the setup that you want if you're preparing to be greedy when others are about to be fearful.

By the way, check out the two bottoms in this fear and greed index over the last year, November 20th and March 30th.

They line up with the exact bottoms of the two biggest dips in the S&P 500.

That's why we look at data instead of trusting our gut and right now the data says investors are still being greedy even though the stock market is fighting a war on two fronts on the supply side with the strait of hormuz being closed for 60 days and on the demand side with open ai missing its own targets and getting dragged to court.

Key Takeaways

Now that you're armed with all the right context and the right data let's talk about how to get rich without getting lucky as all of this unfolds and if you feel i've earned it consider hitting the like button and subscribing to the channel it really helps me out and tells me to make more videos like this.

Whenever the market is fighting a war on multiple fronts good investors turn into snipers that means they do three things the rest of wall street won't first they take the high ground so they can see the whole landscape they zoom out they assess the data and they understand their position that's what we just did we saw the two shocks about to hit the market and we looked at historic data to see where it could move next.

Second snipers track their targets they keep a short list of stocks in their crosshairs and they watch how those stocks move they don't watch every stock they only focus on the best ones third they wait for the right moment to take their shot they're patient when everyone else panics when the fear and greed index flashes extreme fear they're locked and loaded and they're ready to start buying stocks that they've been tracking this whole time.

That's how you get rich without getting lucky there are only two kinds of stocks worth keeping in my crosshairs right now first companies with so much pricing power that they can raise prices without losing customers the second are companies with massive revenues massive free cash flows and massive war chests to keep moving through any market shock.

Let's go through my targets one by one the first stock in my sights is micron ticker symbol mu this stock has almost 5x'd since i started covering it and i still think it's undervalued micron is the only american memory company in a market dominated by samsung and sk hynix both of which are korean companies korea sources more than half its helium through the strait of hormuz if the strait stays closed korean memory production will slow down before microns does and micron is the only company that can step in as a second source for high bandwidth memory the exact kind of memory that nvidia needs to ship their next generation of ai chips.

If the iran conflict continues and korean chip makers get squeezed on supply micron can charge more for the same product to a list of customers that will line up around the block that's what i mean by pricing power and here's the part that wall street is still sleeping on micron's forward price to earnings ratio is under eight making them the cheapest large cap name in the entire ai supply chain and they're expected to grow their earnings by almost 100 next year so next time the stock drops it's the first one i take my shot at.

The second stock i'm watching is asml the only company on earth making the machines required to build the most advanced chips not the best the only their euv lithography machines are some of the most complex pieces of equipment that humanity has ever built tsmc samsung and intel literally cannot produce a single advanced chip without them here's why that matters right now even when supply chains get squeezed every chip maker on the planet still has to keep buying asml's machines to stay competitive there's really no substitute that works at scale.

They can't afford to delay their purchases because they'll just fall behind their competition and they can't negotiate asml down since there's no second supplier they just reported earnings on april 15th well into the iran war and asml sales earnings and guidance have all increased despite the ongoing supply shocks when your customers don't have a choice you don't have a problem and that brings me to the taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company ticker symbol tsm i've been covering tsm stock for over 5 years.

And even though it's gone up by 5x, my conviction has only gotten stronger. TSMC makes roughly 90% of the world's most advanced chips. Every Nvidia GPU, every Apple processor and almost everything in between If TSMC slows down the entire AI economy slows down with it Like I said earlier Taiwan imports 97 of its energy TSMC has 11 days of natural gas on site and about a week of helium reserves If the strait stays closed long enough for those stockpiles to run out, TSMC will have to start picking which orders they can fill, and they'll prioritize their highest margin customers first.

They'll delay the rest, and they'll charge more money because they're allocating their limited capacity to the customers willing to pay if asml makes the ovens then tsmc controls the kitchen and the highest margin company they'll keep cooking for is nvidia.

That's why nvidia is also on my list look i know i talk about them all the time but there's a good reason for that nvidia is at the very center of the entire ai revolution every other company in this video makes the ingredients or they serve the food but nvidia is doing all the cooking.

Nvidia has over a 90 share of the data center gpu market no other company even comes close but here's why it's in my crosshairs at this unique moment in the market if natural gas and helium stockpiles start running dry in korea and taiwan nvidia will get the top priority at every fab because they're the highest margin customer and the entire supply chain depends on them downstream.

Investors should be aware that nvidia is the most exposed stock if things go south with open ai if hyperscaler spending pulls back then nvidia will be the first to feel it but if ai demand holds or it continues to grow nvidia captures most of that upside and if the market panics and nvidia stock has a huge decline i'll be ready to take my next shot.

All right besides the companies that have the most pricing power in their markets, I've also got my sights set on companies with massive revenues, huge free cash flows, and war chests big enough to weather any storm.

Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta platforms are the companies that buy Nvidia's chips. They have their own chips made by TSMC, made in machines by ASML, using memory made by Micron. The entire kitchen we just walked through exists in large part because these four companies are willing to serve those chips to millions of businesses across Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and advertise across Meta's platforms. And here's the mistake that most investors make over and over again. They think that just because a company is big means it has no more room to grow. So let's do what we always do and just look at the data. If you bought Meta stock a year ago, you're up 20% today. If you bought Amazon stock instead, you're up 40%, way more than the overall market.

And if you bought Google, like I've been shouting from the rooftops, you're up 118% in a single year, on a stock that nobody has ever lost sleep holding. And that's the entire point.

When we do hit a bottom and the market starts to recover, institutions don't go from bonds straight into the riskiest stocks on market they increase their risk bit by bit which makes these mega caps their first stop.

These four companies capture trillions of dollars in revenue, hundreds of billions of dollars in cash flows and they have more than enough staying power to survive whatever conflicts come next.

These are the exact companies that big money piles into first when they rotate back into stocks, so holding them before that rotation is exactly how you get in early and double your money on a stock like google.

And if the elon musk court case goes south for open ai, every one of these companies has their own ai strategy, their own models and their own customers, microsoft acquired inflection, google has gemini, meta has llama and muse spark and amazon is heavily invested in anthropic and they have their own custom chips.

If OpenAI cracks, demand doesn't disappear. It rotates to whoever can deliver. That's the hyperscalers. If not their models, then definitely their infrastructure. A big shock is coming, and Wall Street isn't ready, because it'll hit the market from two directions at once. The media doesn't see it coming. But now, you do. You have the high ground. You have my targets, and maybe even some of your own. The fear and greed index tells you when to take your shot all that's left to do is wait let me know which stocks you're watching in the comments and what your plan is as the open AI trial and the Iran conflict continue and if you want to see what other stocks I'm buying to get rich without getting lucky check out this video next either way thanks for watching and until next time this is ticker symbol you my name is Alex reminding you that the best investment you can make is in you.