🔥 PLTR Stock | The End for Palantir Stock?

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palantir stock is the lowest price it's been in over a year the last time it was 16 dollars
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per share was in november of 2020 so in this episode i'm going to answer one simple question
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what's going on with palantir stock and is it a good buy right now wait that's two questions to
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do that i'm going to talk about some of the ways that palantir has grown over the year
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some of their biggest wins on the government and commercial side and address some of the
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biggest recent stories that i've heard around palantir like ross gerber's spicy comments in
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a recent interview do you have any thoughts on paluteer i do i think i think it is literally
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the worst company in the world and more legit concerns about their financial health and
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stock-based compensation your time is valuable so let's get right into it starting with what they've
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accomplished over the year their latest earnings report is for q3 of 2021 and the last time
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they were this price was in q3 of 2020 so we can actually just look at their year over year numbers
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pound year's total revenue grew by 36 percent year over year to 392 million dollars commercial
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revenue growth has also grown by roughly that amount which is great to see because one of the
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biggest complaints i often hear about palantir as an investment is their reliance on government
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contracts commercial revenue in the u.s has more than doubled since q3 of 2020 so they're actually
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getting a lot of business on the commercial side domestically which should alleviate at least
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some of these concerns the other big complaint about palantir is that it's enterprise software
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so the total addressable market is limited to government agencies with huge budgets and big
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fortune 500 type companies in addition to being a flexible platform which works with everything
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from cryptocurrencies and pharmaceuticals to robots and race cars investors want to see that
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palantir's foundry is a scalable platform that can work with companies that have dozens of employees
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not just thousands their total commercial customer account has gone up by a whopping
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135 percent since the start of last year and their commercial customer count is growing faster than
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their average commercial deal value which tells me that they're landing smaller commercial clients
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which means they're starting to move down market to medium-sized businesses in my opinion these
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are positive things that increase their total addressable market even if this looks like their
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average size per deal or average size per client is going down in the short term palantir's final
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guidance for 2021 saw revenue grow by 40 and adjusted free cash flow grow by 33 percent both
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year over year their long-term outlook is for 30 revenue growth per year for the next four years
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so through 2025. all right so just from their earnings report alone we can see that palantir's
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top line has grown by at least 30 percent since the last time the stock was 16 dollars per share
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importantly this doesn't include over a dozen companies that palantir has made investments in
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several of which are no longer specs palantir also stands a lot of them up on their foundry platform
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for example wijo onboards and standardizes over 14 billion unique data points every day from
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connected vehicles through its cloud platform it takes in data like vehicle location speed
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environmental data camera data and more and by partnering with automotive manufacturers
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wijo can take in automobile data directly from any vehicles manufactured by a partner brand
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then they can use that data to help make decisions in a wide variety of automotive applications
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like fleet management hazard monitoring training self-driving ai traffic management advertising
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remote diagnostics roadside assistance and even payments my point is this is a no-brainer business
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for palancers platforms which focus on exactly this type of data collection refinement and
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insight generation helping businesses build on top of boundary before they get very big
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makes palantir very sticky because if a business builds their entire data pipeline on top of
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foundry it'll be very costly and time consuming to switch to different software my point is wijo
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is just one commercial company that palantir is invested in across a wide variety of verticals
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and the growth of those investments should also at least be on our radars as investors i was actually
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lucky enough to get wejo's ceo richard barlow on the channel for an interview a few months ago
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where he answered some pretty tough questions about connected vehicle data being a spack during
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tough market conditions like these and the nature of their relationship with pound here if you're
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interested in learning a lot more about that i'll leave a link to that exclusive interview with mr
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barlow in the top right hand corner of your screen right now and in the description below as well
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weejo has actually had a ton of awesome news come out about it so maybe we'll be lucky enough to get
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a follow-up interview soon fingers crossed on that another thing that we should be watching out for
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is joint ventures just two weeks ago palantir and hyundai heavy industries announced a collaboration
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to build a big data platform for ship building offshore engineering energy and industrial
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machinery once the big data platform is built for hhi and its key affiliates the two parties
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plan to create a joint venture that specializes in developing and selling these big data platform
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services hyundai heavy industries is working on the future of shipyard the first smart shipyard
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in the world hhi's ceo ki sun chung said that they expect that this partnership with pound here will
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substantially improve the competitiveness of core businesses to the group and change the way that
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they work with data this multi-year deal is worth over 25 million dollars and also uses
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palantir's foundry platform investors spend a lot of time focused on foundry because we all want to
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see palantir's commercial business keep ramping up but i also think it's important to consider
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their growth on the government side with their gotham and apollo platforms just last month the
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us army opted to execute the second option year of its partnership with palantir on the army vantage
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program now worth over 116 million dollars for the year meaning the army likes palantir
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enough to stick with them even when they have the contractual option not to army vantage provides
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a central operating system and an integrated near real-time data platform to help create one global
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unified picture of everything going on so that the army can make better decisions at the strategic
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level we also know that palantir was selected for the next phase of the army's competitive
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823 million dollar idiq contract idiq it stands for indefinite delivery indefinite quantity
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for that contract palancier is going to deploy the gotham platform to support army intelligence
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users worldwide with an analytics platform that spans multiple security classifications having
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one platform that supports a worldwide list of army users is a very very difficult challenge
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because different areas of the army have different ways of handling their access lists
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networks data and have a wide variety of analysis tools you would think that everything that the
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army does would be standardized everywhere and work the same way and that's probably true on
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paper but it never works that way in practice plugging the us army's intelligence systems
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and analytics into palantir's gotham will bring this part of the army a lot closer to having that
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unified consistent view of all of their data which is obviously super important when you're talking
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about multiple teams stationed around the world so this 116 million dollar army vantage program
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is another way palantir is helping strategic leaders make data-driven decisions across a huge
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globally distributed enterprise like the us army just two weeks before the army vantage
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program renewal palantir secured an additional 43 million dollars from an extension of their
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contract with space systems command which is now worth over 90 million dollars total this
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award provides continued capabilities to enable all domain situational awareness and decision
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making back from my government research days i can tell you that all domain means different layers of
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intelligence so think about the sea land air and space but also think about telescopes and cameras
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radars and lidars and other types of sensors this version of palantir's platform is known as
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warp core and it's being utilized to make decisions from large volumes of data in
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support of these missions another important thing i always try to call out here is how important
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it is that palantir supports users who operate in multiple security levels and need to access
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multiple separate networks palantir can do this at least in part because of apollo the platform that
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powers their other platforms apollo sits between palantir's other applications and the underlying
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infrastructure that they run on and they spent a good amount of their q3 2021 earnings call
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talking about it apollo lets palantir push the right updates to the right clients at the right
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times even if those client machines are sitting on classified networks or networks that don't touch
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the internet at all i cannot emphasize enough how big of a market apollo unlocks for palantir that
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other software-as-a-service providers simply cannot touch apollo is what allows palantir to
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be one of just five companies authorized for mission critical national security systems at
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impact level five the other four companies are oracle microsoft project hosts and disa which
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is the defense information systems agency so this is a tiny list think about how sticky that
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makes palantir on the government side as well if these parts of the us army or space system command
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decide that they want to try a new platform imagine all the infrastructure and software
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they'll have to change just to do it just like the smaller commercial companies using foundry
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i know i've covered this stickiness several times now but these recent contract extensions
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are clear examples of it in action at the same time they're launching new offerings like foundry
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for crypto if foundry can work on everything from cars to crypto i'm hard-pressed to find a vertical
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that they can't make money from this gives pouncer a huge total addressable market they've
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also recently launched a new certification program which will help valentine's customers unlock even
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more value from foundry regardless of what kind of business they run or at what size there are
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already four foundry exams and certifications available to existing palantir customers
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data engineer application developer data science and data analyst certifications are the exact kind
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of validation that employers look for when hiring new talent amazon and microsoft offer dozens upon
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dozens of certifications today and it makes total sense for palantir to start offering them now
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and expanding these programs into the future okay now let me cover some of the bear arguments
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against palantir just to give you a balanced point of view i'm trying to provide value on
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both sides of the story here i think there are two kinds of bear arguments against pound here
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the first kind is the bad kind it's based on not understanding the actual company at a
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fundamental level here's a quick example about palantir have you do you have any thoughts on
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paluteer i do i think i think it is literally the worst company in the world like ethically so like
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esg i have my own esg rules you know everybody can make what they call morality up i don't really
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believe in religious morality for example so i invest in cannabis i invest in gambling you know
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i don't listen to people telling me what's moral or not okay but i have certain moralities like
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tracking everything americans do and selling that to the highest bidder
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even if they're enemies of america now palantir and the president of palantir is basically the
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for profit cia that's what palantir is so over the last 10 years and it was kind of founded through
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the mercer family and the whole misinformation campaigns that brought trump into power
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so palantir's roots are in tracking all of our digital uh histories making profiles so they
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have a profile of every american so they have your profile and everything you do and they
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track everything you do digitally and they do it through nefarious means and then they take
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these things and they sell them to companies and governments and foreign spying institutions and
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there are no ethical boundaries that palantir who they will and won't sell information to so
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to me they are they make facebook which i hate look like like boy scouts you know so like why
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would you want to be a shareholder of a bunch of shady cia dudes who are cashing out on you
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who don't give a [ __ ] about you at all you know comment below or tweet me at ticker symbol you if
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you saw that interview before ross gerber made dave lee edit that clip out what did you think
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about ross gerber's overall thoughts on palantir i read all of my comments and i'm really excited
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to hear your thoughts if you didn't watch that interview that was ross gerber the co-founder
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and ceo of gerber kawasaki ross is a fun guy to listen to in general but he's super wrong on what
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palantir is what they do and who they do it for specifically that's the bad kind of bare thesis
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palantir is not a for-profit cia and they don't track individuals and they don't sell your data
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to governments or foreign spies they look at tons of data to find patterns build models and then
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find those rare instances when something doesn't fit the pattern a car going the wrong way down a
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highway a financial transaction that looks like it could be fraudulent a radar or camera return
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that looks very unusual that's one thing that all the businesses that work with pounds here have in
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common they have lots of data that they want to see at once and they want to know when something
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is off runaway cars fraud faulty sensors and so on you can't have a solid bare thesis on a company if
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you don't actually understand what that company does even if you're running a billion dollar
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fund like ross gerber his firm runs the gerber kawasaki etf ticker symbol gk which is another
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fund that i've started to track he says in that clip that he hates facebook but his fund contains
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over 4 million dollars of that stock and facebook is his 36th biggest position overall want to hear
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something even more funny i looked through the first few pages of the gerber kawasaki's holdings
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on whale wisdom and it holds rk arc f arcg and arc w inside it relatively towards the top so these
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are pretty big positions those are archives four biggest funds and palantir is in all of them ross
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gerber if you're watching this i'd love to have you on this channel to talk about your thoughts
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on palantir facebook artificial intelligence big data and privacy i think it would be a good time
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okay that's the bad kind of bear thesis on any company the reason we as investors should still
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care about them is they can drive the narrative on a stock until the market realizes this mistake
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think about how misinformed people were for years on tesla stock and what happened to its stock
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price during that time period the other kind of bear thesis is what i think is the good one unlike
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ross gerber's bear thesis these are facts based on reality with data that people can point to
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it's the kind of thesis that uses that same data to come to a different conclusion the government
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makes up a sizable chunk of palantir's revenue palantir's revenue is risky because they rely too
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much on their biggest clients their stock-based compensation is off the charts i've spent a lot
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of time covering these points because they're the ones that i'm watching out for right now
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as a pound to your investor so let me wrap up this episode by saving you a ton of time and giving you
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my answers to these worries right now palantir's commercial revenue growth was 37 percent year
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over year compared to their government revenue growth of 34 percent over the same time frame
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so their government revenue is slowly becoming a smaller portion of their overall revenue
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that's actually also faster than the growth of their average revenue for their top 20 customers
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so they're slowly relying less on their biggest clients over time last quarter they added more net
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new customers than the previous two quarters combined meaning their total customer pool
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is becoming big enough where losing one or two huge customers won't be a complete show
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stopper that's what we want to see stock based compensation is down about 40 percent for just
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quarter three it's down from 847 million dollars in 2020 to 185 million dollars same time in 2021
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that's about an 80 drop compensating employees with stock is a great way to keep their incentives
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aligned with their shareholders and to keep them motivated to perform so we don't ever want to see
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this number hit zero but it's great to see that it's much lower than before that's the nutshell
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but if you want more detailed information on what palantir does how it's growing and what investment
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risks to watch out for i got you covered i've put all of my pal into your content in one convenient
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playlist for you i'll leave that in the top right hand corner of your screen right now and in the
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description below as well hopefully this episode helped you understand just some of the ways that
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palantir has grown over the last year since the last time that its stock was this exact
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price huge wins on the government side commercial side new joint ventures and certification programs
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and investments into other companies and hopefully it also addressed some of the biggest worries
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about palantir that i'm seeing out there right now ranging from ross gerber's commentary to more
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legit concerns about their financial health and insider selling if it did let me know by investing
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in the like button and subscribing to the channel with all notifications turned on that way you'll
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be the first to know when i come out with new deep dives regardless of what palantir tells
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youtube to show you so stay long stay strong and thanks for watching until next time this
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is ticker symbol u my name is alex reminding you that the best investment you can make is in you